All of this wandering around thinking about rationality, empiricism, truth and knowledge now finally culminates in the scientific method. This is, of course, not the be-all and end-all of truth or knowledge, but it is one of the most useful tools we have for probabilistically determining the shape of reality.
If you’re not familiar with the scientific method (really?) it goes something like this:
- Have a question.
- Take a guess.
- Find something that your guess predicts.
- Measure it.
- If your measurement doesn’t match your predication, go back to 2. If it does match your prediction, go back to 3.
You will note, of course, that the scientific method never stops. It is an endless loop of trying out new ideas and finding ways to verify or disprove them. Every successfully predicted measurement is another step on the way towards statistical certainty, but of course like any empirical practice we can never get all the way there.
It is also relatively important that your guess (step 2) must be capable of making predictions (step 3). Every so often someone will claim to have solved a great complicated scientific problem by the means of some mysterious new substance. When asked about this substance, they are incapable of predicting its properties other than that it makes their theory magically work. These ideas do not fit in the scientific method – if it doesn’t generate predictions, it’s not science.